{"id":661,"date":"2026-07-01T07:53:13","date_gmt":"2026-07-01T07:53:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/azero2050.eu\/?page_id=661"},"modified":"2026-08-03T09:14:11","modified_gmt":"2026-08-03T09:14:11","slug":"conference8","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/azero2050.eu\/index.php\/dissemination\/conferences\/conference8\/","title":{"rendered":"Conference 8: ATRS World Conference. Beijing, 1st \u2013 4th July 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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The 29th Air Transport Research Society (ATRS) World Conference<\/a>. Beijing, 1-4 July 2026. Consortium of Universities in Beijing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We presented a research titled System dynamics scenarios for EU airline decarbonisation<\/strong>: advancing the AZERO simulation model. \u6b27\u76df\u822a\u7a7a\u4e1a\u8131\u78b3\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u60c5\u666f\u5206\u6790: AZERO\u4eff\u771f\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u4f18\u5316\u4e0e\u53d1\u5c55as part of the AZERO project<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Presentation took place on Fri 3 Jul<\/strong>. 12:00 \u2013 12:30<\/strong>. Session: M 4-3<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

System dynamics scenarios for EU airline decarbonisation<\/strong>: advancing the AZERO simulation model. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Luis Mart\u00edn-Domingo<\/strong><\/a>1, 2<\/sup><\/strong>; Marina Efthymiou<\/strong><\/a> 1<\/sup>; and Miguel M\u00fajica-Mota<\/strong><\/a>3<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1: Dublin City University<\/a>; 2: Ozyegin University<\/a>; 3: Amsterdam University of Applied Sciences<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Abstract:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This research develops the second step of the AZERO system dynamics model to test whether European airlines\u2019 GHG reduction commitments, reported in ESG disclosures, can achieve net\u2011zero\u2011aligned emission pathways under evolving EU and global climate policy frameworks. Building on the validated AZERO system description and Phase III of the project, we extend a Vensim-based system dynamics model to a multi-airline, policy\u2011sensitive structure covering EU\u2011ETS, CORSIA and ReFuelEU. Empirical ESG and KPI data for major European carrier groups parameterise traffic growth, fleet renewal, SAF uptake and carbon costs, enabling scenario experiments to 2050 under alternative regulatory stringency, technology and demand assumptions. Preliminary scenario runs indicate that current airline commitments and reported initiatives are insufficient to deliver net\u2011zero\u2011consistent trajectories without earlier and steeper SAF deployment, accelerated fleet replacement and tighter carbon pricing. Results highlight strong feedbacks between fuel and allowance prices, investment timing and traffic growth, with several plausible pathways overshooting sectoral carbon budgets before 2040 even when commitments are fully implemented. The study uniquely links European airlines disclosed KPIs and ESG\u2011reported actions to an explicitly documented system dynamics model, rather than relying on purely theoretical top\u2011down scenarios. This provides a transparent, updateable tool for regulators, investors and airlines to stress\u2011test decarbonisation plans, assess KPI feasibility for 2030\u20132050, and explore policy designs that reconcile climate targets with sectoral and firm\u2011level constraints.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Topic areas<\/strong>: Sustainable Aviation<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Keywords:<\/em><\/strong> Aviation decarbonisation; system dynamics simulation; ESG reporting; EU\u2011ETS; CORSIA; ReFuelEU; sustainable aviation fuel; airline KPIs<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LindedIn Post <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Figure 1: <\/strong>From right to left – Prof. Gui LOHMANN, Dr. Leyla ADILOGLU-YALCINKAYA, Prof. Tae OUM, and Dr. Luis MART\u00cdN-DOMINGO at the ATRS2026 in Beijing.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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Figure 2: Certificate of presentation titled “<\/strong>System dynamics scenarios for EU airline decarbonisation:advancing the AZERO simulation model” at the ATRS 2026 in Beijing by Dr. Luis MART\u00cdN-DOMINGO<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The 29th Air Transport Research Society (ATRS) World Conference. Beijing, 1-4 July 2026. Consortium of Universities in Beijing. We presented a research titled System dynamics scenarios for EU airline decarbonisation: advancing the AZERO simulation model. \u6b27\u76df\u822a\u7a7a\u4e1a\u8131\u78b3\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u60c5\u666f\u5206\u6790: AZERO\u4eff\u771f\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u4f18\u5316\u4e0e\u53d1\u5c55as part of the AZERO project. Presentation took place on Fri 3 Jul. 12:00 \u2013<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":283,"menu_order":8,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-661","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/azero2050.eu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/661","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/azero2050.eu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/azero2050.eu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/azero2050.eu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/azero2050.eu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=661"}],"version-history":[{"count":13,"href":"https:\/\/azero2050.eu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/661\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":905,"href":"https:\/\/azero2050.eu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/661\/revisions\/905"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/azero2050.eu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/283"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/azero2050.eu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=661"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}