The 29th Air Transport Research Society (ATRS) World Conference. Beijing, 1-4 July 2026. Consortium of Universities in Beijing.
We will present a research titled System dynamics scenarios for EU airline decarbonisation: advancing the AZERO simulation model. 欧盟航空业脱碳的系统动力学情景分析: AZERO仿真模型的优化与发展as part of the AZERO project.
Presentation to be held on Fri 3 Jul. 12:00 – 12:30. Session: M 4-3
Abstract:
This research develops the second step of the AZERO system dynamics model to test whether European airlines’ GHG reduction commitments, reported in ESG disclosures, can achieve net‑zero‑aligned emission pathways under evolving EU and global climate policy frameworks. Building on the validated AZERO system description and Phase III of the project, we extend a Vensim-based system dynamics model to a multi-airline, policy‑sensitive structure covering EU‑ETS, CORSIA and ReFuelEU. Empirical ESG and KPI data for major European carrier groups parameterise traffic growth, fleet renewal, SAF uptake and carbon costs, enabling scenario experiments to 2050 under alternative regulatory stringency, technology and demand assumptions. Preliminary scenario runs indicate that current airline commitments and reported initiatives are insufficient to deliver net‑zero‑consistent trajectories without earlier and steeper SAF deployment, accelerated fleet replacement and tighter carbon pricing. Results highlight strong feedbacks between fuel and allowance prices, investment timing and traffic growth, with several plausible pathways overshooting sectoral carbon budgets before 2040 even when commitments are fully implemented. The study uniquely links European airlines disclosed KPIs and ESG‑reported actions to an explicitly documented system dynamics model, rather than relying on purely theoretical top‑down scenarios. This provides a transparent, updateable tool for regulators, investors and airlines to stress‑test decarbonisation plans, assess KPI feasibility for 2030–2050, and explore policy designs that reconcile climate targets with sectoral and firm‑level constraints.
Topic areas: Sustainable Aviation
Keywords: Aviation decarbonisation; system dynamics simulation; ESG reporting; EU‑ETS; CORSIA; ReFuelEU; sustainable aviation fuel; airline KPIs