The 2026 Winter Simulation Conference
(WSC 2026). 6-9th December 2026. Glasgow, Scotland.
Our paper titled “Airline Decarbonization Pathways Using System Dynamics: A Conceptual Simulation Framework” has been accepted and plan to attend.
Airline Decarbonization Pathways Using System Dynamics: A Conceptual Simulation Framework
Luis Martín-Domingo1, 2; Miguel Mújica-Mota3; and Marina Efthymiou 1
1: Dublin City University; 2: Ozyegin University; 3: Amsterdam University of Applied Sciences
Abstract:
European airlines face increasingly ambitious climate obligations, yet whether their reported Greenhouse Gas (GHG) reduction commitments are consistent with net-zero by 2050 remains unclear. This paper presents a modeling framework for simulating European airline decarbonization pathways using a System Dynamics (SD) approach. Drawing on climate science, European Union (EU) and International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) regulatory instruments, and empirical sustainability reporting, the framework specifies geographic, temporal, institutional, and sectoral boundaries; core entities (airlines, fleets, fuel mix, demand, policy instruments); key processes (traffic dynamics, fleet renewal, Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) deployment, and carbon pricing); and data inputs and outputs from publicly available airline and regulatory reporting. Informed by a European airline’s 2024 sustainability reporting, the framework establishes causal relationships across sub-processes governing airline emissions, revealing the dynamics shaping GHG performance under policy, technical, and disruption scenarios. Results provide a replicable, software-independent foundation for simulation implementation.