The global aviation industry faces a significant challenge in scaling sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production to meet projected 2030 demand of 17.1 million tonnes annually, which would require an additional 5.8 million tonnes of capacity to secure final investment decisions (FID) by 20261. Current SAF adoption remains limited, with only three major airlines consuming over 1% SAF in 2023, despite government mandates like the EU’s ReFuelEU and voluntary corporate targets1. Four primary production pathways dominate: HEFA (cost-effective but feedstock-constrained), Alcohol-to-Jet (leveraging ethanol infrastructure), Gasification-Fischer Tropsch (high scalability but complex), and Power-to-Liquid (energy-intensive but scalable)1. Capital requirements vary dramatically, with estimated investments ranging from $19 billion to $45 billion depending on the technology mix, as HEFA remains dominant near-term while advanced pathways like PtL gain traction under ambitious decarbonization scenarios1.
To bridge this gap, the report identifies 10 financial levers to de-risk investments and accelerate SAF deployment. Key strategies include securing government grants for first-of-a-kind facilities (e.g., UK’s £165 million Advanced Fuels Fund), leveraging multilateral development banks for emerging markets, and structuring long-term offtake agreements (e.g., IAG’s 14-year deal with PtL producer Twelve). Additional approaches involve book-and-claim systems for corporate Scope 3 emissions, private equity injections (Bain Capital’s $700 million investment in EcoCeres), and infrastructure financing models like Brookfield’s $1.1 billion commitment to PtL projects. These solutions emphasize blended finance approaches, combining public support with private capital, while addressing risks across policy, feedstock, and technology maturity that currently delay FID for 60% of announced projects1.
References
WEF. (2025). Financing Sustainable Aviation Fuels: Case Studies and Implications for Investment. https://www.weforum.org/publications/financing-sustainable-aviation-fuels-case-studies-and-implications-for-investment/