Conference 6: Multilogs Conference 2025

Scenario Simulations for EU Airline Decarbonisation: An AZERO Phase III Prototype with System Dynamics

Luis Martín-Domingo^{1, 2}; Miguel Mújica-Mota³; and Marina Efthymiou ¹

1: Dublin City University; 2: Ozyegin University; 3: Amsterdam University of Applied Sciences

Abstract

The EU Green Deal objective for 2050 of net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will need to be achieved across sectors, including aviation. Achieving net-zero GHG emissions in EU aviation by 2050 requires robust, traceable inputs that translate corporate decarbonisation pledges into simulation-ready variables. Phase I of the AZERO simulation focuses on building this input foundation by systematically extracting, classifying, and structuring decarbonisation actions disclosed in the environmental sections of airlines’ ESG reports. There is increasing interest in modelling aviation scenarios to estimate future emissions; AZERO will use simulation techniques that incorporate actual airline KPIs, actions taken (e.g., fleet renewal, SAF mandates), and future commitments, enabling measurement of KPI effectiveness and feasibility and informing recommendations for achieving 2050 goals. The overall goal is to assess the feasibility of EU airline GHG reduction commitments for net-zero by 2050. This research on scenario simulations will apply simulation methods, via traffic scenarios, environmental initiatives, and airline commitments, to estimate KPI feasibility for 2030, 2040, and 2050. The approach relies on System Dynamics (SD) to predict emissions trends over time and to inform control policies, with Vensim as the modelling tool. The first simulation model will be a basic version of the final objective that will allow the researchers to become familiar with the Vensim simulation tool by applying it to data from three airline groups.

Keywords: aviation decarbonisation, simulation, system dynamics, ESG metrics, net zero 2050