Challenging pathway to aviation net-zero by 2050

EUROCONTROL’s latest Aviation Long-Term Outlook to 2050 provides crucial insights into the future of European aviation and its path towards sustainability. The report forecasts significant growth in air traffic, with the most likely scenario projecting 15.4 million flights in Europe by 2050, representing a 52% increase from 2023 levels (average growth rate of +1.6% per year). This growth, however, comes with challenges, as demand is expected to exceed capacity at key airports, resulting in a ‘capacity gap’ of 1.1 million flights in the base scenario.

Figure 1: Aviation estimated CO2 emissions 2025-2050 (Eurocontrol, 2024)

The outlook emphasizes the aviation industry’s commitment to achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, in line with the EU Green Deal and ICAO’s long-term aspirational goals. To reach this target, the report highlights several key factors and their expected contributions to emissions reduction:

  1. Fleet and technology improvements: Expected to save 53 million tonnes of CO2 (20% of total carbon emissions in 2050).
  2. Operations and infrastructure enhancements: Projected to reduce emissions by 27 million tonnes (10%), including innovations in air traffic management (ATM).
  3. Sustainable aviation fuels (SAF): Anticipated to be a major contributor, accounting for 90 million tonnes (33%) of CO2 savings by 2050 in the base scenario.
  4. Out-of-sector measures (carbon offsetting, and carbon capture technologies): A gap of 101 million tonnes (37%) to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

The report acknowledges that achieving net-zero emissions remains an ambitious goal. The aviation industry will need to rely on appropriate financial incentives, a solid regulatory framework, and the successful implementation of these various sustainability measures. EUROCONTROL’s forecast serves as a vital input for the European Aviation Environmental Report 2025 and the ECAC/EU European States’ Action Plans 2024, demonstrating Europe’s commitment to sustainable aviation at the ICAO level.

Source:

Eurcontrol. (2024). EUROCONTROL Aviation Long-Term Outlook Flights and CO₂ emissions forecast 2024 – 2050. https://www.eurocontrol.int/publication/eurocontrol-forecast-2024-2050